Director of research
Areas of expertise
Britain and Europe, migration and labour markets, the single market and supply side reform, international trade, the euro, fiscal and monetary policy.
24 April 2017
The softest form of hard Brexit that is plausible – given the red lines of the 27 and Britain – is something like Switzerland's deal with the EU.
23 February 2017
The US will not gain by resorting to protectionism. If it does so, the EU should stay calm, listen when US criticism is justified, and make its first priority the defence of the WTO process and the rule of law.
16 December 2016
Remaining in the customs union seems to be the least damaging way for Britain to ‘take back control’, but it is fraught with difficulties.
12 December 2016
Inequality, insecurity and a nativist backlash against immigration all help to explain the rise of populism. But globalisation does not prevent governments from addressing these problems.
21 October 2016
The 2008 devaluation did not prompt strong growth in British exports. The post-referendum fall in the pound is unlikely to do so either.
19 September 2016
Recent data suggests that the Brexit vote will not cause a recession. This, coupled with the fact that British voters rejected two important principles of the EU, makes a single market exit all but certain.
05 August 2016
The British government is likely to let all EU migrants who arrive before the date of Brexit stay in the country. Other options may be politically attractive, but are impractical, of dubious legality, or against British interests.
18 July 2016
Britain is one of the more populous countries in Europe, is highly integrated with the European economy, and is 21 miles from France. These facts limit its room for manoeuvre in the Brexit negotiations.
11 July 2016
Economic developments in Britain since the referendum suggest that a recession is coming. And the politics of the negotiation with the EU suggest the country will suffer a prolonged period of weak economic growth.
17 June 2016
Even Brexiters admit that there will be short-term economic costs to leaving the EU. Young people would disproportionately bear the brunt, and the effects would be long-lasting.