John Springford

John Springford

Director of research
Areas of expertise 

Britain and Europe, migration and labour markets, the single market and supply side reform, international trade, the euro, fiscal and monetary policy.

Twitter 
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A prime minister unshackled

09 May 2017
Checks on prime ministerial power are weak in Britain – and Theresa May’s massive parliamentary majority after the general election will weaken them further. In the context of Brexit, this is dangerous.
Brexiting Swiss-style: The best possible UK-EU trade deal

Brexiting Swiss-style: The best possible UK-EU trade deal

24 April 2017
The softest form of hard Brexit that is plausible – given the red lines of the 27 and Britain – is something like Switzerland's deal with the EU.

Trump, trade and the EU: Two wrongs don't make a right

23 February 2017
The US will not gain by resorting to protectionism. If it does so, the EU should stay calm, listen when US criticism is justified, and make its first priority the defence of the WTO process and the rule of law.

Customs union membership is no way out of the Brexit trap

16 December 2016
Remaining in the customs union seems to be the least damaging way for Britain to ‘take back control’, but it is fraught with difficulties.

Brexit and the economics of populism

12 December 2016
Inequality, insecurity and a nativist backlash against immigration all help to explain the rise of populism. But globalisation does not prevent governments from addressing these problems.
Sterling slump won't rescue the British economy

Sterling slump won't rescue the British economy

21 October 2016
The 2008 devaluation did not prompt strong growth in British exports. The post-referendum fall in the pound is unlikely to do so either.

Why a hard Brexit looks likely

19 September 2016
Recent data suggests that the Brexit vote will not cause a recession. This, coupled with the fact that British voters rejected two important principles of the EU, makes a single market exit all but certain.
Britain will struggle to make EU migrants 'go home'

Britain will struggle to make EU migrants ‘go home’

05 August 2016
The British government is likely to let all EU migrants who arrive before the date of Brexit stay in the country. Other options may be politically attractive, but are impractical, of dubious legality, or against British interests.

Britain's limited options

18 July 2016
Britain is one of the more populous countries in Europe, is highly integrated with the European economy, and is 21 miles from France. These facts limit its room for manoeuvre in the Brexit negotiations.
Long day’s journey into economic night

Long day’s journey into economic night

11 July 2016
Economic developments in Britain since the referendum suggest that a recession is coming. And the politics of the negotiation with the EU suggest the country will suffer a prolonged period of weak economic growth.

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