Britain & other member-states
09 May 2017
Checks on prime ministerial power are weak in Britain – and Theresa May’s massive parliamentary majority after the general election will weaken them further. In the context of Brexit, this is dangerous.
08 May 2017
Germany is divided on how to respond to Macron: some are wary of a new bargain to revive the Franco-German alliance, others are enthusiastic.
03 May 2017
Few countries have allowed their sense of exceptionalism to damage their interests in the way Britain is doing. British overconfidence is unjustified and will come at a heavy price.
24 April 2017
The softest form of hard Brexit that is plausible – given the red lines of the 27 and Britain – is something like Switzerland's deal with the EU.
17 March 2017
Brexiters hope that Berlin will adopt an accommodating stance in the forthcoming negotiations because of Germany's economic and security interests. Such hopes are misplaced.
20 February 2017
What will the Brexit deal look like? Which are the key decisions that Theresa May still has to make? And what should she do in order to get the best possible deal?
06 February 2017
A stand-off between the EU and Britain over the size of its exit bill could lead to the collapse of negotiations and an abrupt, disorderly Brexit.
26 January 2017
The EU-27 fear domestic politics will drive Britain towards a very hard Brexit. But Theresa May is strong enough at home to resist such pressures, if she wishes to.
17 January 2017
Theresa May has decided on a hard Brexit, putting sovereignty ahead of economics. She thinks the negotiations will take only two years, but they will take longer.
22 November 2016
Trump's win has further weakened the liberal case for Brexit. Forging the closest EU ties possible is now even more essential for Britain.
23 September 2016
Britain's economic record is mediocre and much of the country poor by Western European standards. The reasons for this are home-grown. And Brexit risks aggravating them.
21 October 2016
The 2008 devaluation did not prompt strong growth in British exports. The post-referendum fall in the pound is unlikely to do so either.
03 October 2016
The British government needs to understand why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit, and then work hard to secure their goodwill.
28 July 2016
Theresa May’s ministers need to negotiate not just one Brexit deal, but six. They must charm not only EU governments, but also every WTO member.
29 June 2016
Britain is in serious trouble. It does not need further concessions from you, but the dust needs to settle before it can take decisions about its future.
25 June 2016
Remain suffered from unconvincing messengers, too narrow a message, difficulties over migration, a savage media and a ruthless Leave campaign machine.
24 June 2016
The EU will not dissolve after Brexit, but it will change incrementally. The UK will probably end up with a free trade agreement like Canada’s.
24 June 2016
In the early hours of this morning - when we discovered "Leave" had won 52 per cent of the votes in this referendum - the rules of British politics were torn to shreds.