Research & Press

Brussels focuses on UK's €60bn exit bill before trade talks

20 February 2017
Financial Times
Given the EU-27 want to leave this to the last stage of talks, Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, argues the timing for transition talks will be “particularly contentious”. “The UK will want interim arrangements to be fixed as soon as possible in the separation talks, to dissuade footloose companies from quitting the UK,” he wrote in a CER paper released on Monday.

Brexit briefing: A critical test for Corbyn's Brexit strategy

20 February 2017
Financial Times
Not just hard, but difficult, Theresa May will trigger Article 50 and begin talks on leaving the EU in a few weeks. With many of the details still uncertain, Charles Grant analyses the options still open to the UK as it forges a new relationship with the EU.

'No deal' Brexit would mean £6bn in extra costs for UK exporters

20 February 2017
The Guardian
"I doubt UK farmers know what’s coming," said John Springford, director of research at the Centre for European Reform. "There is a real risk for the average British farmer that they could be dealing with much worse trading terms."

Inner Brexit circle: May is playing it close amid government tension

20 February 2017
The Guardian
Still, security and immigration are clearly priorities for her government. Questions over whether that comes from the number of Home Office imports are aired in a paper by Charles Grant, director of the CER. “People in the inner circle may become overstretched so that important decisions are delayed, and centralisation may discourage the tapping of outside expertise,” he writes.
CER podcast: What free movement means to Europe and why it matters to Britain

CER podcast: What free movement means to Europe and why it matters to Britain

16 February 2017
Discussion on the politics and economics that underlie differing views of free movement in the UK and Europe.

Theresa May needs to compromise with the technocrats

15 February 2017
E!Sharp
As British prime minister, Theresa May has the right – and the power – to interpret the referendum result as she sees fit.

Storbritanniens militærmagt er jokeren i Brexit-forhandlingerne

15 February 2017
Information
»Europæerne er opmærksomme på det britiske bidrag til sikkerheden i Europa, så det vil spille en rolle i forhandlingerne. Det vil kunne hjælpe briterne, men det vil også kunne skade briterne. De vil kunne miste en hel del goodwill, hvis de spiller deres kort forkert,« siger Sophia Besch, ekspert i NATO og europæisk sikkerhed ved tænketanken Center for European Reform i London.
Bad-tempered Brexit talks loom as May’s demands irk Europe

Bad-tempered Brexit talks loom as May’s demands irk Europe

10 February 2017
Bloomberg
“The British may over-estimate the strength of the cards they hold,” Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, said in a note. “That means that May and her ministers should conduct the talks in a sober, courteous and modest manner.”

The multi-billion-euro exit charge that could sink Brexit talks

Alex Barker
09 February 2017
The Economist
In a new report for the CER, Alex Barker of the Financial Times, puts the figure at anything between €24.5bn ($26.1bn) and €72.8bn. The bill comprises three main elements. Mr Barker reckons Britain’s share could amount to €17.4bn. The government will struggle to explain why voters should be on the hook for payments made after Brexit. But the European Commission will argue that Britain’s approval of the current budget, which runs until 2020, obliges it to cough up.
Draghi meets Merkel as populist concerns trump ECB criticism

Draghi meets Merkel as populist concerns trump ECB criticism

09 February 2017
Bloomberg
“A period of above-target inflation is exactly what the doctor ordered,” said Christian Odendahl, chief economist of the London-based Centre for European Reform, pointing to the currency bloc’s output gap. “If anyone can convince her to support such a course of action, it’s Draghi.”

CER podcast: Kori Schake on Donald Trump and what he means for Europe

Sophia Besch, Kori Schake
09 February 2017
Kori Schake discusses how European leaders should approach the Donald Trump presidency, the real checks and balances of the American political system and why she is optimistic about the NATO Summit.

The May Doctrine

08 February 2017
The New Statesman
Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform, believes that rather than choosing a “hard” – the Prime Minister prefers “clean” – Brexit, May should have tilted more towards those who voted Remain. She should have pursued what he calls “an economically optimal deal, something like Norway but a bit different, where we would more or less have been in the single market with a little bit of restriction on free movement”.

Theresa May outfoxes pro-EU opponents on Brexit vote

08 February 2017
Financial Times
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, says Sir Keir has “half a point” and that if the vote was held early enough Mrs May might come under pressure from business and the City to go back and try again.

Five Brexit challenges as Britain leaps into the unknown

Alex Barker
08 February 2017
Financial Times
But the commission calculates that Britain owes €60bn. As a paper for the Centre for European Reform notes, this is “a far cry from the £350m-a-week bounty promised by Brexit campaigners during the referendum campaign”. This demand could prove to be the decisive stumbling block.

Buying Britain out - the price of leaving the EU

Alex Barker
07 February 2017
RTE News
Alex Barker, the Brussels Editor of the Financial Times, has done us all a favour. In a new paper for the Centre for European Reform he has plunged into the unpleasant and confusing world of the EU budget to try and figure out answers to these important questions.The biggest chunk of the bill is for spending commitments over the course of the EU's 2014-2020 multi annual budget framework. A key issue here is a rather antique French state accounting concept known as RAL - Reste a Liquider - roughly translated as "yet to be paid". 

'Am I missing something?' Andrew Neil FUMES over £30bn Brexit bill EU expects UK to pay

06 February 2017
The Express
The presenter talked with Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, and Henry Newman from Open Europe, over the cost of Britain leaving the European Union. Speaking on Sunday Politics, the host claimed Theresa May would find it very difficult in the future if she is forced to pay a £30billion bill to the EU. Mr Grant suggested Brussels is expecting a figure up to the amount of £60bn before admitting it could be considerably lower. 

What does it cost to leave the EU?

Alex Barker
06 February 2017
Financial Times
If Brexit talks collapse the most likely reason will be money. Back in November, the FT first reported that Britain would be served an exit bill of up to €60bn. Now in a paper for the Centre for European Reform, I’ve tried to explain the detailed calculations, the law behind it, and the volatile budget politics that may soon engulf Westminster and Brussels. You can see the full version here.

Sunday Politics: Brexit bill

05 February 2017
Charles Grant, director of the CER and Henry Newman, director of Open Europe speak to Andrew Neil on Sunday Politics about the bill for Brexit. (From 12.00 mins)
 

Split by 'Brexit' May and Merkel diverge on wider issues, too

05 February 2017
The New York Times
“They are both serious people who don’t grandstand, who don’t play for the gallery,” said Charles Grant, the director of the London-based Centre for European Reform.
EU-Tripoli Migrant Deal Ignores Political Chaos in Libya, Analysts Warn

EU-Tripoli Migrant Deal Ignores Political Chaos in Libya, Analysts Warn

04 February 2017
Luigi Scazzieri talks to Voice of America about the EU's migrant deal with Libya.

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