Research & Press

EU hopeful UK vote will smooth Brexit path

21 April 2017
Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform predicted that, despite the divisive nature of the Brexit referendum, May would win a massive majority of 130-150 seats because of the opposition Labour party's weakness. If so the "positive scenario is that she wants that (a majority) so she's not vulnerable to attacks from the eurosceptic right," Tilford told AFP.

Camino Mortera-Martinez — Wonk of the Week

20 April 2017
In this new Playbook feature we'll shine a spotlight each Thursday on an author posting interesting content on Based in Brussels, Camino Mortera-Martinez works for the Centre for European Reform.

Judy Asks: Does France need to change?

20 April 2017
Carnegie Europe
It has become popular to argue that France needs to change, not only for the country's own sake, but also for the sake of the EU's future.

'Make Me Stronger' The election campaign is on. What choices will Britain be offered?

20 April 2017
Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform wrote in the Guardian that the EU won’t make Brexit easy, no matter what the election result is.

How France's presidential election could break – or make – the EU

20 April 2017
The Guardian
“It would show that liberal, pro-EU centrists may yet have a future in European politics,” says Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform. “Macron wants reforms to pep up France’s economy and strengthen its position in Europe.” A Macron win could also suggest that, after Britain’s decision to leave and the shock election of Donald Trump in the US, “the demise of liberalism, internationalism and the EU ... may not be inevitable,” Grant added.

Germany needs a strong EU. Why would it allow Britain an easy Brexit?

19 April 2017
The Guardian
Angela Merkel’s government has no interest in indulging the UK during the negotiations – and a general election won't change that.

EU unmoved by May's election surprise

18 April 2017
Agata Gostynska-Jakubowska, a research fellow at the London-based Centre for European Reform says it could help Mrs May in the talks over the transitional period after Brexit. “This is a tricky issue, because the transition would probably mean continued jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, and continued payments to the EU.”

Erdogan warned to tread carefully with Turkey's EU entry at stake

18 April 2017
"The approval of the constitutional changes makes the prospect of Turkey's accession to the EU recede even further," Luigi Scazzieri, research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, said in an emailed statement. "Many European leaders are already calling into question the future of the accession process."

After economic crisis, low birthrates challenge Southern Europe

16 April 2017
The New York Times
While dwindling populations threaten all of Europe, “the really serious problem is that some of the weakest countries are the ones with the least favorable demographics,” said Simon Tilford, the deputy director of the Centre for European Reform in London. “Lower birthrates in the south will mean weaker growth and productivity, holding the birthrate down and producing more fiscal problems.”

EU not ready to act against Hungary on reforms

12 April 2017
Voice of America
Agata Gostynska-Jakubowska of the Centre for European Reform says the tools the bloc has to address rule of law issues aren’t working properly. “When a government violates European law and in the process goes against democratic values the commission can open an infringement procedure and bring the case in front of the Court of Justice. This procedure cannot be applied however when an EU government backtracks on democratic values but does not break any EU law. If the European Commission does not find any evidence that the EU law has been broken by government's reforms on higher education there is little it can do.”

EU, French militaries prepare to go it alone after Brexit, US warnings

09 April 2017
France 24
“After the British vote to leave the Franco-German couple is the obvious pair to provide leadership for EU defence,” writes research fellow Sophia Besch of the Centre for European Reform. “France will be the only country left in the EU that can credibly project force abroad, and not many initiatives can succeed in Brussels without Germany’s support.”

The emerging Trump doctrine: Don't follow doctrine

08 April 2017
New York Times
“We have learned that Trump is not so isolationist as many Europeans feared he would be — he appears to care about victims of a gas attack in Syria,” said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform in London. “We have learned that he understands that US influence had suffered from the perception — which grew under Obama — that it was a power weakened by its reluctance to use force.”...

Merkel allies say Berlin shares Irish Brexit concerns ‘100%’

06 April 2017
The Irish Times
“I’m not sure what that means in practice,” said Christian Odendahl, chief economist and Berlin representative of the Centre for European Reform. “A German government will always be reluctant to get involved in others’ internal politics, [and] that goes for Northern Ireland as well as Scotland.”

The spat over Gibraltar will be followed by other bilateral rows

06 April 2017
The Economist
Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, notes that all three leading candidates in the French presidential election are promising to withdraw from this treaty, which is blamed in France for the migrant camps that have sprouted around Calais.

Theresa May begins to dismantle Brexit roadblocks

05 April 2017
Financial Times
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, predicted that Mrs May might next concede a role for European judges in a transition period, saying it could be “the next redoubt of Eurosceptic ideology to fall”.

Hardliners stay ‘Zen’ over Theresa May’s softer Brexit mantras

05 April 2017
Financial Times
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, noted that so far the Eurosceptic press was still highly supportive of Mrs May, encouraged by her resolute language on Brexit.

Wojny o Gibraltar nie będzie

04 April 2017
– Wielka Brytania wychodząc z UE musi się liczyć z tym, że państwa członkowskie będą dbały o interesy tych, którzy zostają – mówi „Rzeczpospolitej" Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, ekspertka londyńskiego Centre for European Reform...
...– To granie na emocjach Brytyjczyków i odwracanie uwagi od potencjalnie poważnych konsekwencji gospodarczych Brexitu – uważa Gostyńska-Jakubowska.

Polskie Radio: Parlament Europejski chce mieć wpływ na negocjacje

02 April 2017
Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska talks to Polskie Radio about the position of the European Parliament on Brexit.

Security is risky card for Britain in Brexit talks, analysts say

31 March 2017
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, said that in the tough talks ahead with the EU, “Britain’s strongest card is its contribution to European security.”

David Davis, Britain’s Brexit street fighter

31 March 2017
Financial Times
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, says this was the week when it became clear that Mrs May was determined to reach a deal with the EU and was ready to compromise. Securing that goal could depend much on the relationship between Mr Davis and “Michel”, who at the age of 66 is also on the comeback trail.
“Like Barnier, Davis wants a deal,” Mr Grant says. “He’s building a relationship with Barnier and that’s to his credit. For both of them, it is one last hurrah.”