Research

May cannot lead on Brexit. Here’s Corbyn’s chance to seize the day

Sam Lowe
23 February 2018
The Guardian
According to Sam Lowe, trade analyst at the Centre for European Reform, what Britain is asking for is “institutionalised cherrypicking” – and no cherrypicking is the cardinal rule of the single market. Small wonder, then, that not long before the cabinet sat down to slow-braised Guinness short rib of beef, the European commission issued a document explicitly rejecting the three-basket approach. In light of that, “ambitious” is one way to describe the UK government’s approach. “Delusional” is another.

The big issues of Italy's election campaign in charts

23 February 2018
Financial Times
The centre-right coalition, including Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and Matteo Salvini’s Northern League, has been able to “ride a wave of discontent over the migration crisis”, according to Luigi Scazzieri of the Centre for European Reform. Italy has a relatively low immigrant population but the issue has become a top concern for Italians because of the flow of migrants arriving from across the Mediterranean.

Jacob's dream's crackers

23 February 2018
The Llanelli Herald
Was it just his imagination running away with him? Was there a ball of confusion instead of clarity? Whatever it was, Jacob Rees Mogg succumbed to the temptations of the television cameras in the House of Commons and gave an insight into the thought processes in the Brexiteers’ psychedelic shack.

Leaked docs show EU capitals considering trade deal with UK

Sam Lowe
22 February 2018
The Sun
Sam Lowe, from the Centre for European Reform, explained such a pact would involve fewer checks and less paperwork for British businesses but could not provide a silver bullet for all their concerns. He said: “In practice it would mean barriers still go up, but depending on some of our other choices UK products would be considered low risk so the frequency of intense checks would be low.”

Mission Impossible at Chequers

21 February 2018
The Financial Times
Charles Grant, head of the Centre for European Reform, highlights this thinking in a piece for Politico. He notes that the 27 are more divided on the future relationship than they were on the first phase of the Brexit talks.He says that some governments are uncomfortable with the hard line taken by the Germans, the French and the commission and point out that the UK’s trade with the EU is eight times that of Canada’s and that Britain and the EU will want a much closer relationship in areas like security, foreign policy and research. “This camp includes Sweden, the Netherlands, Denmark, Ireland, Portugal, Italy, Croatia, Hungary, Poland and possibly Spain.”

Tory MPs' hard Brexit letter to May described as ransom note

Sam Lowe
20 February 2018
The Guardian
Sam Lowe, a trade expert at the Centre for European Reform, told the Guardian: “A standstill transition is in everyone’s interest and absolutely essential if the government is serious about negotiating a mutually beneficial ongoing relationship between the EU and UK. In trying to undermine that the ERG are asking the government to sacrifice the economy on the altar of ideology.”

EU could demand freedom of movement after Brexit in return for going easy on bankers

20 February 2018
The Telegraph
But John Springford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, said the EU would treat Britain as harshly as Switzerland, which was forced to back down after a referendum demanded an end to free movement. The Swiss-EU agreement does not cover services, he added. “Most countries do not want to lose young, skilled people to the UK, as it erodes their tax base. And unless the UK signed up to free movement pretty much as it is now, the deal will be a much more limited Free Trade Agreement,” he told The Telegraph. 

The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change - Podcast: A Germany special - politics and defence

Sophia Besch
19 February 2018
Shashank Joshi and Simon Tilford of the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change sit down with the Centre for European Reform's Sophia Besch to discuss the twists and turns of Germany's coalition talks, and the state of Germany's military. 

What defence policy for the next German government?

Sophia Besch
19 February 2018
E!Sharp
As they try to form a coalition government after last September’s inconclusive elections, Germany’s politicians are debating Germany's role in protecting Europe.

Of course we will strike a bespoke Brexit deal — but that's not the point

Sam Lowe
19 February 2018
Prospect
The government’s “Road to Brexit” series of speeches has kicked off, with Boris Johnson and the Prime Minister making contributions so far.

Theresa May wants new security treaty with EU next year

Sophia Besch
17 February 2018
The Guardian
“Theresa May is right to warn against letting ideology get in the way of security,” said Sophia Besch of the Centre for European Reform. “But her message should be directed not just at the EU, she needs to say the same to Brexiters at home who categorically oppose the ECJ on ideological grounds.”

Theresa May, in Munich, calls for swift security pact and offers concession

17 February 2018
The New York Times
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, a pro-European think-tank based in London, called it “serious and detailed,” noting Mrs May’s expertise on the subject as former home secretary.

Brexit will damage UK services exports

Sam Lowe, John Springford
15 February 2018
OMFIF
Distance and economy size are the most important factors determining the level of trade between two countries.

Boris Johnson struggles to woo remainers with Brexit lovebomb

14 February 2018
The Guardian
John Springford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, argued there was no evidence that British regulation was more effective than the EU’s. He pointed out that productivity was 20-25% lower in the UK than in France and Germany, and that the big technological developments were emerging from the US.

CER podcast: A briefing on Italy's election

Sophia Besch, Luigi Scazzieri
14 February 2018
Sophia Besch asks Luigi Scazzieri about the political debate in Italy and which coalition might win the election on March 4th.

BBC Radio 4 - Today programme: Free ports

Sam Lowe
13 February 2018
Free ports could potentially bring some local benefits after Brexit, but they won’t outweigh the costs of leaving the European customs union said Sam Lowe, a research fellow at the CER (from 1: 27 mins).

Brussels should not ‘humiliate’ Britain in the Brexit talks or the whole EU could collapse, key Macron ally warns Michel Barnier

13 February 2018
The Sun
Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform, said many EU countries were unhappy with the pair and the Commission “on the narrow scope of the deal that they appear to want to offer UK”.

The great 'Made in Britain' delusion

Sam Lowe
13 February 2018
Politico
Against this backdrop, Britain’s best hope is that it can agree with its trade partners (and Brussels) a system called “cumulated rules of origins,” said Samuel Lowe, a trade expert at the Centre for European Reform. ...“To allow cumulated rules of origins with, for example, South Korea, not only Britain but also the EU would need to negotiate with Seoul,” said Lowe. Every renegotiation comes with a cost, such as counter-demands from the other side, he warned. To reopen the EU’s numerous trade deals would be  lengthy and costly.

PESCO unlikely to deliver much in the short term

Sophia Besch
13 February 2018
The Progressive Post
PESCO, or permanent structured co-operation, is a political framework that aims to help EU countries develop military capabilities together and improve their ability to deploy them.

EU endgame is political unity not free trade, argues Boris Johnson

12 February 2018
The Guardian
Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform, said Johnson was right that the founding fathers of the EU wanted to create a united Europe through economic integration – but argued that the result was the world’s most open trading bloc. “That meant that the EU had to be a liberalising project, in the sense of removing barriers to the free flow of people, capital, goods and services,” he said, arguing that required mutual recognition of standards.