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Later this month the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, will publish a revised version of its 2014 study on Brexit, based on the work of economists from Groningen University in the Netherlands. It concludes that Britain’s trade with the EU has been 55% greater than it would have been without membership - and that there have been no detectable losses from trade diverted from third countries towards the EU

Rem Korteweg Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for European Reform, a think tank in London, told BNE Intellinews that membership perspective for neighbouring countries, be it Ukraine or Balkan countries, already unlikely, could become even more distant. “It is very likely that any enlargement decision will be subjected to a referendum, in the Netherlands or elsewhere, and rejected. The Dutch government will be very hesitant to agree to any enlargement in the current circumstances”, Korteweg explains.

Rem Korteweg, a Dutch senior research fellow at the London-based CER, echoed concerns throughout the region. "This will slow the accession process down and raise doubts about whether the EU can stand by commitments it makes," he said. "The Dutch government will find it difficult to agree to enlargement with any state at this juncture."

"Chances are many people will have forgotten the details by the time we get there," said Ian Bond, director of foreign policy for the pro-EU Centre for European Reform based in London. "But they probably will strengthen that populist sense which the campaign to leave the EU is tapping into that you have a political elite that lives in a different world from ordinary people and I think that is potentially quite damaging to the remain side."

Rem Korteweg, del CER —un think tank londinense— se hace eco de las encuestas y apunta que el no holandés “es probable”. Y tendrá consecuencias: “Minaría la relación entre la UE y Ucrania, daría al presidente ruso Vladímir Putin una victoria inmerecida y avivaría los populismos a lo largo de Europa”, subraya.

The awkwardness for Prime Minister Mark Rutte is that while the Dutch Parliament has ratified the agreement, an instrument of ratification must be deposited with the European Union in Brussels for it to be legal. This gives legal space to the referendum, said Rem Korteweg, a Dutch analyst with the CER. If Dutch voters oppose the deal against the vote of their duly elected Parliament, as they are currently expected to do, Mr Rutte "will have to find a middle road," Mr Korteweg said. After all, he noted, the Netherlands currently holds the rotating presidency of the European Council.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, whose country currently holds the rotating presidency of the EU's Council of Ministers, ducked out from campaigning hard for a yes vote. "He fears that he has little to gain from leading [the yes campaign]. He faces general elections in Spring 2017, and his party is neck-and-neck with Geert Wilders’ right-wing populist Freedom Party in the race to become the country’s largest [in the Dutch parliament]," argued Rem Korteweg of the CER.