Press

Marketplace: Angela Merkel's woes echo beyond Germany's borders

07 December 2017
John Springford of the Centre for European Reform said, given the political cloud still hanging over Merkel, she’s less likely to respond positively to Macron’s plan. “If she doesn’t have a stable coalition, it would be very difficult for her to give Macron very much at all,” he said (from 1 min 58).

Phase one of the Brexit talks is proving hard. Just wait for phase two

07 December 2017
The Economist
Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank, argues that phase two will be much tougher to negotiate than phase one. The clock is ticking towards March 29th 2019, when Brexit is due to happen. It will be hard to agree on a legally watertight, time-limited transition, not least because few experts think a new trade deal can be wrapped up (and ratified) within two years. And when it comes to the trade deal on offer, the EU will say that, if Britain insists on leaving the single market and customs union and retaining the option of regulatory divergence, it can only have a deal similar to Canada’s, which covers most goods but barely any services.

Judy Asks: Is multilateralism on the wane?

06 December 2017
Carnegie Europe
Multilateral organizations have often been ignored by individual states: the Soviet Union defied the United Nations after its 1979 invasion of Afghanistan.

Phase 2 talks could be picked up in New Year - Varadkar

06 December 2017
RTE News
Director of the Centre for European Reform Charles Grant said he believes the recent setback on the border issue has weakened London's position and set off reverberations in Scotland, which will now seek a similar deal to Northern Ireland. Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, Mr Grant said unless Britain stays in the customs union and the single market, there will have to be border controls between the UK and the EU. He added that customs unions need to be policed and the British government appears to be avoiding this issue.

Nowe zmartwienia Polski i innych krajów „drugiej prędkości” w UE

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska
06 December 2017
Deutsche Welle
W Brukseli nikt nie liczy, że rozstrzygające dyskusje w tych sprawach zaczną się przed sformowaniem nowego rządu w Niemczech. – Francuskie pomysły napotkają silny sprzeciw, bo rzucają wyzwanie gospodarczej ortodoksji w północnych krajach UE – tłumaczy Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska z Centre for European Reform, autorka analizy „Nowy deal dla eurolandu: lekarstwo czy placebo?”. Niemiecki minister finansów Peter Altmaier już wczoraj publicznie powątpiewał, czy strefa euro potrzebuje nowych narzędzi do pomocy w razie wstrząsów ekonomicznych.

Tok FM: Co dalej z porozumieniem w sprawie Brexitu?

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska
06 December 2017
Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska speaks to Tok FM about the Commission’s eurozone proposals and Brexit.

The case for a slow-motion Brexit

Beth Oppenheim
05 December 2017
Prospect
Recent chaos in the negotiations shows that a two-year "implementation period" is entirely unrealistic.

Surge in capital investment drives better than expected Hungary growth

05 December 2017
Financial Times
However, a report released last week by the Centre for European Reform think-tank suggested that “average households have not seen enough of the fruits of economic growth”, with worker compensation growing more slowly than GDP and consumption falling as a share of overall spending.Tuesday’s data highlighted the potential for such trends to continue. Household consumption did rise by a healthy 4.4 per cent year on year in the third quarter, but that paled in comparison with a 20 per cent surge in fixed capital formation.

Europe must guide Trump on Iran nuclear deal

05 December 2017
EurActiv
North Korea’s latest ballistic missile test is an unsettling reminder of what happens when there is no agreement in place to moderate the behaviour of a bellicose regime.

'Britain will cave to EU demands' Theresa May to accept Brexit deal on Europe's terms

02 December 2017
The Express
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, said the talks on the UK’s exit from the EU have made progress on main key issues such as citizens’ right and the Irish border. And Europhile said the European Council may even declare that Britain has made “sufficient progress” when it meets in December. But he warned Theresa May’s troubles were “far from over” and the Prime Minister will eventually be forced to cave into the EU’s demands if she hopes to get anywhere with trade talks. Writing in the Financial Times, the EU expert claims the negotiations are “turning out like accession talks in reverse”. He wrote: “When a country joins the EU, the talks are called 'negotiations' to humour the applicant. 

Europe holds all the cards in the Brexit talks

01 December 2017
Financial Times
EU negotiators are confident Britain will eventually accept a deal on their terms.

Het is erop of eronder voor een ordentelijke Brexit

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska
01 December 2017
NRC Handelsblad
De stroomversnelling waar de Brexitonderhandeling in beland is, neemt niet weg niet dat de gesprekken moeizaam verliepen. „Het beperkte begrip van Britse politici van hoe de EU werkt, was problematisch”, zegt Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, onderzoeker bij de Londense denktank Centre for European Reform.

Europe wanted migrants stopped. Now some are being sold as slaves.

30 November 2017
The New York Times
“The tragic and morally unjustifiable thing about this is that European Union policy is certainly a part of why this is happening,” John Springford, who studies migration at the Centre for European Reform, a research organisation in London. “But whether that will lead to a change in direction, I am doubtful.”

Europe’s mixed economic messages

30 November 2017
Financial Times
 Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform examines the Visegrad four (Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary) and finds that, economically speaking, all is not well. He points out that while economic production (gross domestic output) has caught up impressively with western Europe, incomes have converged less. The four countries’ GDP per capita ranges from 64 per cent to 82 per cent of the eurozone average; but labour income is only at 50 per cent to 59 per cent. Consumption growth has also lagged behind GDP growth.

A political fog on eurozone reform — courtesy of Paris and Berlin

30 November 2017
Politico
Christian Odendahl, chief economist at the London-based Centre for European Reform, resonates with the German electorate. “There is no macroeconomic narrative in Germany about the euro crisis,” he said. “It’s all about Germany having to pay for others.”

Brexit cost rises as Britain retreats on divorce demands

29 November 2017
The New York Times
“Although the current focus is on the separation, the next phase of the talks could prove much harder and more acrimonious,” wrote Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, a research institute, in an analysis. “EU negotiators think the British government is deluded about the kind of future relationship it can achieve.”

Brexit breakthrough pits diehards against EU strength

29 November 2017
Financial Times
Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform has set out ten predictions for the Brexit talks, including the Irish border will prove the most contentious part of the separation agreement.

Brexiters nowhere to be seen as UK raises white flag over EU divorce bill

29 November 2017
The Guardian
Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform, said he believed Britain had little realistic choice but to cave in on money, citizens’ rights and the Irish border if it wanted to get to phase two talks on trade. “It is dressed up as a negotiation, but it’s really been a story of the British taking time to realise that they have got to accept what the EU demands of them,” he said. “The EU is intelligent enough not to pursue this in a humiliating way, but the truth is that we have to accept.”

Ireland urged to trust Theresa May

27 November 2017
The Telegraph
Michel Barnier has given a speech at an EU summit in Estonia. Much of what he said was similar to his address to the Centre for European Reform: Britain must choose between a trade deal with the EU or radically different regulation from it.

Irlandia wykolei Brexit? Szykuje się wielka awantura

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska
27 November 2017
Wiadomosci
Irlandczycy od początku sygnalizowali jak ważna jest to kwestia, ale Brytyjczycy chyba nie docenili wagi tego problemu. Teraz to najważniejsza przeszkoda w tych negocjacjach - mówi w rozmowie z WP Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, analityk Centre for European Reform w Londynie.