Catalan crisis

05 October 2017
Politico Brussels Playbook
Why Spain needs a constitutional overhaul: Camino Mortera-Martinez for the Centre for European Reform writes that the only way for Madrid to resolve the fragility of the Spanish state without giving into the demands of the Catalan government is to urgently revise the country’s model of regional government.

A compromised king 

05 October 2017
Financial Times
Camino Mortera-Martinez, at the Centre for European Reform, says the time has come for a major constitutional overhaul in the eurozone’s fourth-largest economy:“What is happening in Catalonia is not a case of a state denying the democratic rights of its people. It is the product of increasingly radical separatism and a constitutional framework that is too rigid to accommodate those demands.”

Catalonia is a huge problem for the European Union because silence won't be enough

04 October 2017
Catalan President Carles Puigdemont also wants the EU to trigger a mechanism known as Article 7 which would suspend the membership rights of Spain on the grounds that it has breached EU values like the respect for human rights or the rule of law. But there is little chance the EU will use this ‘nuclear option’, according to Camino Mortera-Martinez, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform think-tank.

Andrea Leadsom refuses to deny Brexit splits with Theresa May

02 October 2017
New Statesman
Former leadership candidate objected to Brexit transition terms and said: "I shall be in the cabinet just as long as the Prime Minister wants me to be".

Bombardier row is a cautionary lesson in the folly of Brexit

02 October 2017
The Irish Times
Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, believes the EU will wait until the US Trade Commission rules on last week’s decision, probably early next year, before showing its hand: “But the EU will also have a choice. It could see this as an opportunity to step in and demonstrate to the British the benefits of being members of a big market and a strong trade policy, and to expose the Brexiteers and their inability to act. On the other hand, they might decide this is a good opportunity to hang the British out to dry and teach them a lesson, exposing how vulnerable Britain is going to be in a post-Brexit world.”

As Brexit transition tears Tories, one deal maybe not enough

02 October 2017
Britain will have to ask the European Union for two back-to-back transition deals to ease its exit in 2019, according to Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform research institute. The influential think-tank believes Britain will need years to prepare for Brexit and the two-year transition proposal that Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservatives are still fighting over won’t be nearly enough to protect businesses from a cliff-edge.

Boris Johnson is 'fantastic', says Andrea Leadsom, amid Tory leadership unrest

02 October 2017
The Independent
Ms Leadsom, an ardent Brexiteer, told the Centre for European Reform (CER) fringe event she would remain in the cabinet “as long as the Prime Minister wants” after she diverged from Tory policy by saying the UK would take back control of its “money, borders, laws” by its official exit from the bloc in 2019.

The Eurozone will survive after Brexit – even if the UK crashes out of the EU

29 September 2017
The Independent
It is hard to see a ‘no deal’ scenario derailing the Eurozone recovery – the currency union is simply not dependent enough on the UK for that to happen.

Euro and Brexit land

29 September 2017
Financial Times
On the threat of a Trump trade war, Simon Tilford at the CER warns the White House's escalation is just a taste of things to come for post-Brexit Britain: "Brexiters assume Britain will face a benign international environment once freed from the EU to take advantage of open markets elsewhere. They take for granted that the UK would be able to rely on the US underwriting the global trading system. This was always naive, but has become delusional with the election of Donald Trump."

CER podcast: EU values and interests in the age of Trump

29 September 2017
Sophia Besch talks to Ian Bond about how the European Union can protect the international liberal order, as well as its security interests, when it can no longer rely on partnership with Trump’s America.

What does the German election mean for Brexit?

28 September 2017
Deutsche Welle
The next round of Brexit talks, planned for October, could be delayed until December, ostensibly due to a lack of progress on trade issues. However, drawn out coalition talks in Germany may also play a role.

What is the Bombardier dispute about? And does it tell us Brexit will be a disaster?

28 September 2017
The Independent
Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform believes so. He has noted that the EU and the US have been quarrelling about state support for Boeing and Airbus (the giant European aircraft manufacturer) for several decades but that this has never resulted in US tariffs on Airbus imports.

Brexiters are being naive over US trade. Bombardier is a taste of things to come

27 September 2017
The Guardian
Outside the EU's protective umbrella, Brexit Britain would be at the mercy of strong-arm US trade tactics.

Germany's Mr Austerity to leave - but may not herald change

27 September 2017
The Daily Mail
Schaeuble spent 130 billion euros less than would have been allowed under the constitution's debt rules, according to Christian Odendahl, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform. That frugality may however leave a successor more room to loosen fiscal policy, either through tax cuts or more spending, or both, he said.

Judy Asks: What next for Europe after the German election?

26 September 2017
Carnegie Europe
Experts from Europe and across the globe weigh in on the range of domestic, European, and foreign policy priorities facing German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the new coalition government in Berlin.

Germania, la Merkel vince ma l'equilibrio non sta più nel mezzo

25 September 2017
«Difficile vedere la differenza tra centro destra e centro sinistra, in Germania i due partiti sono oramai indistinguibili», ha sottolineato a caldo Simon Tilford, vice direttore del Centre for European Reform di Londra: «Come del resto in altri grandi Paesi europei». A proposito d'Europa: nessuno più del presidente francese Emmanuel Macron avrà sofferto nel vedere i risultati delle elezioni tedesche. Il suo grande piano di riforma dell'Unione europea si basa innanzitutto su una profonda e sincera alleanza tra la sua Francia e una Germania libera dall'incubo elezioni, di nuovo saldamente in mano alla Cancelliera.

Brexit and energy: A choice between economics and sovereignty

Sir Philip Lowe
25 September 2017
Withdrawal from the European Union raises key questions for the UK's energy sector.

German election results LIVE: AfD vows to 'hunt' Angela Merkel after making shock gains

25 September 2017
The Express
Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform tweeted: “13.5% for AFD grim, but its high point given refugee inflows falling back? Hopefully SPD result will force it to be more social-democratic.

Victoire en demi-teinte pour Angela Merkel

25 September 2017
Le Devoir
« Avec les résultats de ce soir, la coopération entre la CDU et le SPD prend fin, a déclaré son candidat Martin Schulz. […] Nous sommes tous d’accord pour devenir le premier parti d’opposition. […] Notre parti connaît à nouveau des heures amères, mais la social-démocratie a survécu et trouvé le moyen de montrer sa force — même confrontée à l’extrême droite qui affiche son visage hideux. » Selon l’économiste en chef du Centre for European Reform, Christian Odendahl, ce résultat n’est ni plus ni moins qu’« un désastre pour le SPD ».

China Business Network (CBN): German elections

25 September 2017
Christian Odendahl speaks to China Business Network about the German elections.