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Brexit will damage the United Kingdom more than the EU, but both will be weaker as a result of it. The United Kingdom, as one of only two EU countries with a genuinely global foreign policy, has played a large role in shaping the EU's response to international crises. It has also been instrumental in strengthening EU law enforcement and domestic security co-operation at a time of increasing threats. Ian Bond, Director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform.
 

Centre for European Reform analyst Luigi Scazzieri said in a recent opinion piece for Aspenia Online that while a close defense partnership may emerge at some point, it is unlikely to in the near term. “Boris Johnson’s government appears cautious of seeking a close relationship with the EU, with Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab arguing that it had other options,” Scazzieri said.

Sophia Besch, a senior research fellow with the Centre for European Reform, said the jury is still out over that assessment. “The big question is whether the European Union can prove that the initiatives improve the operational capabilities,” she said.

Sam Lowe, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, says that Brussels is nervous because it fears that the UK, being so close to the EU, could “entice investment via deregulation that would otherwise go to the EU”. Those companies could then use the UK’s free trade deal to access EU markets.

Mõttekoja Centre for European Reform analüütik Agata Gostynska-Jakubowska sõnul valitseb Suurbritannias ikka veel arusaam, et võib tulla Brüsselisse ja ähvardada oma partnereid, lüüa rusikas lauale ja kasutada jaga ja valitse lähenemist.

That would likely mean new barriers to trade are inevitable, said Sam Lowe, a trade-policy expert at the Centre for European Reform, a London think tank. The moment the U.K. gets the right to choose to diverge from the EU on regulations, the EU will treat it as if it already has diverged, he said.

Three people with a good claim to have predicted it first are Charles Grant, Denis MacShane and Patrick O’Flynn. Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform, wrote in March 2005 about what would happen if Britain voted No in the referendum Tony Blair had promised. 

“Many questions remain about the future relationship,” said Sam Lowe, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform in London. “We have left the EU, but Brexit lives on.”

Britain needs to “drop its starry-eyed optimism”, according to Sam Lowe, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform. “The UK will not get an easy ride just because of its so-called special relationship with the US. If the UK resists US demands, particularly in the area of agriculture and food hygiene, then concluding a comprehensive free trade agreement could take years.”