In the Press - Down to earth: Brexiteers need to respect gravity models of international trade

01 October 2016
The Economist
For the foreseeable future, GDP per person in places like India and China will be lower than the EU’s, points out John Springford of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank. It will be many years before these countries’ citizens are rich enough to demand the same sorts of goods and services from Britain as the EU does.

In the Press - Hard bargain: Lacking clear American leadership, the global trade agenda is floundering

01 October 2016
The Economist
Christian Odendahl, an economist at the Centre for European Economic Reform, a think-tank, says that including such a controversial provision in TTIP was probably a mistake; legal systems in America and Europe are developed enough for investors not to need the extra legal certainty.

In the Press - Bye, bye Basel: Shielding Europe's banks

30 September 2016
Financial Times
Talking Britain down: Martin Wolf draws attention to the myriad flaws of the British economy in this piece. The piece relies on a paper by Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform, which we linked to the other day.

In the Press - Viktor Orbán's date with destiny

29 September 2016
The World Weekly
On no issue is this state of limbo more dangerous than migration. With civil wars still raging in the Middle East, any number of sparks could see the crisis flare up again with startling intensity. “There is a sense of calm before the storm,” said Camino Mortera-Martinez, a research fellow and expert on free movement at the Centre of European Reform, a think-tank. As it stands, she told TWW, the bloc would be ill-equipped to withstand such an eventuality. The current solutions, though hard-fought, are sticking plasters; the serious treatment is yet to come.

In the Press - Make no mistake, Britain is not a world-beating economy

29 September 2016
Financial Times
Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform provides a far more realistic picture in his Brexit Britain. Measured at purchasing power parity, the rise in the UK's gross domestic product per head between 2000 and 2015 was smaller than in Germany, Spain and France. Over this period, the UK outperformed only Italy, among the EU's largest pre-2000 members. In 2015, the UK's GDP per head was lower relative to the average of the 15 pre-2000 EU members than in 2000: its GDP per head was a mere ninth within this group.

In the Press - As US election nears, the globe watches (very) intently

28 September 2016
The Christian Science Monitor
In Britain, just setting out on an uncertain path outside the European Union, the "special relationship" between London and Washington is more important than ever, suggests Ian Bond, foreign policy analyst at the Centre for European Reform in London.

In the Press - Distorted data that mask Britain's real plight

28 September 2016
The Evening Standard
It was, for example, often repeated by Boris Johnson in the EU referendum campaign that Britain’s economic performance had for the last 15 years been much better than that of the rest of the EU. But Simon Tilford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, alleges that, on the contrary, Britain is in many ways the poor man of Europe.  

In the Press - Stuck in a rut? Here's how to help the Brits who feel left behind

28 September 2016
City A.M
Our fortune in the west may be indisputable, but is often little comfort to the many Brits who – by western European standards – are stuck in an economic rut. Stark figures were published this week from the Centre for European Reform. London and the south east are the only UK regions with a higher-than-average GDP per capita, compared to 15 major EU countries. All other parts of the UK (accounting for three quarters of the population) have GDP-per-head below 90 per cent of the EU-15 average.

Future events

CER/Open Europe fringe event at the Conservative party conference: ‘Testing the limits of the post-Brexit Deal’

03 October 2016
Speakers include: Raoul Ruparel; Dominic Raab MP; Detlef Seif, Member of the German Parliament, CDU; Chair: Charles Grant