Pound's plunge unlikely to help exports

Press quote (The Australian)
Christian Odendahl, John Springford
15 July 2016

"Exporters need to continue to invest to remain competitive. If Brexit leads to an investment freeze, the fall in the pound might not be enough to boost exports," Christian Odendahl and John Springford at the Centre for European Reform, a research institute in London, wrote.

A falling pound does not automatically lead to a one-for-one boost to UK exports. Recent estimates show that a 10 per cent reduction in UK export prices leads to a four per cent rise in exports, according to Odendahl and Springford.

They note that global trade grew by just 2.5 per cent over the past year and will expand by even less this year, while today's multinational production networks and supply chains mean a weaker currency helps exporters a lot less than in the past.

That said, comparisons with 1992 and 2008 are instructive.