Sky News with Kay Burley: In or Out? Is the EU good or bad for business?

Press quote (Sky News)
Simon Tilford
05 April 2016

Why do we need to be in a political union to trade freely with other countries? 

Simon Tilford, Deputy Director of Centre for European Reform: It depends on what you mean by trade. The EU Single Market is not just a Free Trade Agreement. It is what we call a single market. So it removes barriers to trade not only in goods but in services, and in people, and capital. So it is a much deeper trading or economic arrangement than a simple trading arrangement. So we can't replace a single market with simple free trade agreements.

How much does staying in the EU cost us? What would be the real cost of leaving?

It is quite clear that our trade and investment with the rest of the EU is massively higher than can be explained by our proximity to the rest of the EU and by levels of wealth across the EU. So something about the EU works. 

Half of all foreign investment in the UK now comes from other EU countries. The big doubt is how much of that trade and investment is threatened by leaving the EU. And the problem with that is we don't know because we don't know what the terms of the divorce will be. If, for example, Britain leaves the EU and then negotiates unimpeded market access to the EU, so we just go on pretty much as before... if we do that outside of the EU but with full market access, we will have to sign up to pretty much all of the rules and regulations of the EU, including free movement of labour, and make contributions to the EU budget. Now given that we'd be leaving the EU because people are unhappy about levels of immigration, and because of a sense of wanting to re-take their sovereignty, if you like, then I think it is a safe assumption that Britain would balk at that kind of arrangement. So we would have to negotiate some kind of Free Trade Agreement or trade with the EU under so-called WTO rules. And under both of those scenarios, I think it is safe to say there would be a potentially significant impact on trade and investment that would far outweigh our savings from our contributions to the EU budget. 

Are you in favour of staying or leaving? 

It is very very hard to see what problems facing Britain today would be solved by leaving the EU. We need to avoid scapegoating the EU for our own failings.

Why is German still the highest producer of steel in the EU whilst our steel industry is contracting?

Membership of the EU is not a constraint on British exporters. It doesn't handicap their ability to sell into emerging markets.