Press

According to Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, the Treasury has written an unpublished analysis that shows that the economic benefits of Mr Fox’s future trade agreements with non-EU states would be significantly less than the economic cost of leaving the customs union. Such a document, if leaked or published, could be a blow to Mr Fox’s position.

“Our friends are concerned - and less friendly countries are bemused and astonished - that the great British machine, which is world famous for efficiency, now seems to be all over the place,” said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform in London. “Britain’s name has never been held in lower regard than now in terms of its competence, its ability to organize, its ability to be strategic and influence anything.”

“There may be more willingness to put human-rights issues with China on the back burner,” said Ian Bond, the director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform and a former British diplomat. “In many respects, economically, there is a lot of concern in Europe about the direction the US is heading in.”

Camino Mortera-Martinez of the Centre for European Reform says the European Arrest Warrant has made it easier for the UK to extradite criminals but Britain will find it almost impossible to negotiate as good an arrangement after Brexit.

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said that even if German business did agitate for a good deal for Britain, there was little evidence Merkel would listen. “Many of the key policy-makers in Germany do not care what the business lobbies say,” he said. “They care about the principles. One of their principles is that the single market is indivisible. Another is that the British must be seen to pay a price for Brexit, doing less well outside the EU than in it.”

 Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform has spelt out what Mrs May risks if she continues to make the ECJ an indelible red line. “She will severely limit the scope of the agreements that cover the future relationship. Thus, if the UK wants to stay in the single market for aviation, it will have to accept ECJ rulings, as do Norway and Iceland. The same dilemma applies to many other areas, like financial services, electricity, data flows and security co-operation.”