Press

Britain’s exports of financial services to the EU could fall by almost 60 per cent as a result of leaving the single market, marking a “sea change” in the services sector that drives the UK economy, according to new research by the Centre for European Reform.The think-tank sought to assess the impact of new trading barriers on the key areas of services where Britain currently has a comparative advantage — finance, insurance, law and accountancy.

The backstop “means all kinds of things to different people,” says Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think tank. “The right hates it because it leaves open the possibility of being locked in a customs union. The left hates it because it leaves Britain outside the EU but subject to the rules of the EU and without a voice or a vote.”

Yet little substantive change to her deal will be possible, says Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank. The withdrawal agreement, a legally binding treaty that includes the Irish backstop, will not be rewritten. Any suggestion that Parliament should have a veto over entering the backstop will surely be rejected.

Jednak, zdaniem ekspertów, zadanie może być bardzo trudne, bo dzisiejsza rola dolara jako waluty światowej to efekt historii, polityki, struktury amerykańskiej gospodarki i sposobu działania amerykańskiej Rezerwy Federalnej. Londyński think tank Centre for European Reform opublikował analizę, której autorami są Adam Tooze z Uniwersytetu Columbia i Christian Odendahl z CER. Zwracają oni uwagę na trzy cechy waluty globalnej. Po pierwsze, musi być ona używana w międzynarodowych transakcjach. O ile dolar jest walutą w kontraktach, o tyle dla 80 proc., których USA nie jest stroną, to już euro, choć też często używane, występuje praktycznie tylko w transakcjach, których przynajmniej jedną stroną jest państwo strefy euro.

In an analysis on this issue, Sam Lowe of the Centre for European Reform in London, said that membership of a customs union with the EU would not stop the UK pursuing an independent trade policy, particularly in areas like services vital to its economy. However the UK could not strike all-compassing trade deals involving tariff cuts on goods entering its market, as these would be aligned with the EU.

Sam Lowe, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, says that current members are likely not to want a transient UK joining their club, destabilising it and leaving in a few years. Instead of joining as a full member, the UK could ask to be an associate and, as the voting structure in the group provides each state with a veto, the UK could opt out of this to ensure this balance is not disrupted. 

Yet although predictions of job losses after the vote were off the mark, John Springford of the Centre for European Reform, another think-tank, says those for the economy were not. GDP per person is some 2% below where it would have been without the Brexit vote.