Press

Financial services exports to EU face 59% fall, warns think-tank

07 December 2018
The Financial Times
Britain’s exports of financial services to the EU could fall by almost 60 per cent as a result of leaving the single market, marking a “sea change” in the services sector that drives the UK economy, according to new research by the Centre for European Reform.The think-tank sought to assess the impact of new trading barriers on the key areas of services where Britain currently has a comparative advantage — finance, insurance, law and accountancy.

It’s about services, stupid

07 December 2018
The Financial Times
The problem with this, as Sam Lowe of the Centre for European Reform points out in a timely paper, is that said trade agreements tend not to go far beyond WTO commitments in any case.

The great Brexit breakdown

07 December 2018
The Wall Street Journal
The backstop “means all kinds of things to different people,” says Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think tank. “The right hates it because it leaves open the possibility of being locked in a customs union. The left hates it because it leaves Britain outside the EU but subject to the rules of the EU and without a voice or a vote.”

AKK's victory will allow Merkel a dignified exit - but little more than that

07 December 2018
The Telegraph
The result does not guarantee her survival, but as Christian Odendahl of the Centre for European Reform in Berlin observes, it increases the chances of Mrs Merkel making a dignified exit.

BBC Radio 4 - Today programme: Emergency brake to limit free movement

07 December 2018
Sam Lowe, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform (from 2:13), speaks to the Today programme about the emergency brake to limit free movement.

The consequences of saying no to Theresa May's Brexit deal

06 December 2018
The Economist
Yet little substantive change to her deal will be possible, says Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank. The withdrawal agreement, a legally binding treaty that includes the Irish backstop, will not be rewritten. Any suggestion that Parliament should have a veto over entering the backstop will surely be rejected.

A bigger role for the euro would benefit the US too

06 December 2018
The Wall Street Journal
For everyone to trade in dollars, they must be able to store them for future use, explains the historian Adam Tooze and economist Christian Odendahl in a paper for the Centre for European Reform. That means finding safe dollar assets, such as government bonds or other bonds with high credit ratings. Demand for these lowers financing costs for anyone borrowing in dollars.

Chart du jour: German reservations

Christian Odendahl, Adam Tooze
05 December 2018
Financial Times
The commission launches its plan to internationalise the euro on Wedenesday. Adam Tooze and Christian Odendahl of the Centre for European Reform look at what is really needed to make that happen (hint: one of the main obstacles is Germany’s reluctance to reform economic policy).

¿Por qué los euros no sirven para comprar petróleo? Bruselas presiona para que eso cambie

05 December 2018
El Pais
“Durante mucho tiempo, el dominio del dólar no parecía tener importancia (...). Pero la administración Trump ha convertido la política económica en un arma y eso hace que la presencia del euro en los mercados mundiales pase a ser una cuestión de política exterior”, señalan Adam Tooze y Christian Odendahl en un análisis publicado ayer por el instituto de estudios Centre for European Reform (CER).

Euro rzuca wyzwanie dolarowi. Ma być symbolem potęgi Unii

05 December 2018
Rzeczpospolita
Jednak, zdaniem ekspertów, zadanie może być bardzo trudne, bo dzisiejsza rola dolara jako waluty światowej to efekt historii, polityki, struktury amerykańskiej gospodarki i sposobu działania amerykańskiej Rezerwy Federalnej. Londyński think tank Centre for European Reform opublikował analizę, której autorami są Adam Tooze z Uniwersytetu Columbia i Christian Odendahl z CER. Zwracają oni uwagę na trzy cechy waluty globalnej. Po pierwsze, musi być ona używana w międzynarodowych transakcjach. O ile dolar jest walutą w kontraktach, o tyle dla 80 proc., których USA nie jest stroną, to już euro, choć też często używane, występuje praktycznie tylko w transakcjach, których przynajmniej jedną stroną jest państwo strefy euro.

CER Bulletin podcast: China and the EU; fighting disinformation

05 December 2018
In this CER Bulletin podcast, CER researchers brief podcast listeners on two of the most important topics for Europe this month.

UK politics struggles with the idea of being 'trapped' in the backstop

03 December 2018
The Irish Times
In an analysis on this issue, Sam Lowe of the Centre for European Reform in London, said that membership of a customs union with the EU would not stop the UK pursuing an independent trade policy, particularly in areas like services vital to its economy. However the UK could not strike all-compassing trade deals involving tariff cuts on goods entering its market, as these would be aligned with the EU.

What's best for women is best for Britain

01 December 2018
The New European
Since we voted to leave the EU, this country has been haemorrhaging money – £500 million a week, according to the Centre for European Reform.

An EEA/EFTA Brexit model would actually solve Theresa May's problems – here's how

29 November 2018
The Independent
Sam Lowe, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, says that current members are likely not to want a transient UK joining their club, destabilising it and leaving in a few years. Instead of joining as a full member, the UK could ask to be an associate and, as the voting structure in the group provides each state with a veto, the UK could opt out of this to ensure this balance is not disrupted. 

Why the Norway Plus plan is not as simple as Brexiteers believe

29 November 2018
The Telegraph
Trade experts like Sam Lowe at the Centre for European Reform think-tank say this is possible, in theory, but it would not happen overnight or automatically, since the UK would immediately be seeking derogations and special status within the EFTA bloc, which comprises Iceland, Lichtenstein, Norway and Switzerland.

How to make yourself poorer

28 November 2018
The Economist
Yet although predictions of job losses after the vote were off the mark, John Springford of the Centre for European Reform, another think-tank, says those for the economy were not. GDP per person is some 2% below where it would have been without the Brexit vote.

Cakewatch: How Brexit might affect UK and EU foreign policy

28 November 2018
The Centre for European Reform is the UK's foremost think-tank on matters European, and Ian Bond is its Director of Foreign Policy, so Chris is in his element this week discussing how Brexit might affect both UK and EU foreign policy. Featuring not one, not two, but three baskets.

Moscovici: "Se vincono i nazionalisti tornerà la guerra in Europa"

28 November 2018
Il Giornale
Non fa nomi, il Commissario Ue. Ma non è difficile immaginare a chi siano indirizzate le dichiarazioni contenute nel suo discorso al Centre for European Reform. E dopo aver immaginato dei tanti "piccoli Mussolini" che si aggirano per il Vecchio Continente, ora arriva addiruttira a parlare del rischio di un nuovo conflitto intra-europeo.

Poland's fight with Brussels backfires

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska
27 November 2018
The Financial Times
“I think the commission has realised that Article 7 isn’t very useful as an instrument of pressure, and that the Court of Justice is probably more activist than many of us thought,” says Agata Gostynska-Jakubowska, from the Centre for European Reform in Brussels. “But the jury is still out on whether the commission will now be keener to use the ECJ to address democratic backsliding in other member states.”

The hunt for Brexit Plan B

27 November 2018
The Financial Times
Third, can a majority be found in parliament to back it? Perhaps, says John Springford of the Centre for European Reform. But he says the problem for many Conservatives is that it means Britain will in effect become a rule-taker while the plan doesn’t end freedom of movement to the degree proposed by Mrs May.“Remainers might say OK to this,” says Mr Springford. “But ultimately, the question for Conservative MPs is whether they would be willing to accept this degree of vassalage after all the criticism they have made about May’s plan.”