Press

Deadlock looms at Brexit talks next week

28 May 2020
The Economist
Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group, a consultancy, says it is even possible that the June summit may decide to abandon the negotiations, though Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, suggests the crunch is more likely to be in the autumn.

CER podcast: A Hamilton moment?

Christian Odendahl, John Springford
22 May 2020
On 18th May, Merkel and Macron proposed a €500bn recovery fund for the EU. John Springford and Christian Odendahl discuss why it's needed, and whether reluctant countries will back it.

Brexit fury: Boris and Varadkar set to clash over UK-Ireland customs infrastructure

Sam Lowe
21 May 2020
The Express
Centre for European Reform research fellow Sam Lowe added: “The British request to have British qualifications recognised by default, subject to terms and conditions, goes far beyond the EU-Japan deal, or the CETA deal with Canada.“This is not necessarily impossible but it is not the kind of things the EU hands readily in its free trade agreements.”

The EU recovery fund is a historic step, almost

21 May 2020
Financial Times
Frugal states may block needed transfers to the south but there is a way forward.

UK: Brexit trade deal demands 'go beyond' other EU agreements

Sam Lowe
20 May 2020
City A.M
Centre for European Reform research fellow Sam Lowe added: “The British request to have British qualifications recognised by default, subject to terms and conditions, goes far beyond the EU-Japan deal, or the Ceta deal with Canada.
“This is not necessarily impossible but it is not the kind of things the EU hands readily in its free trade agreements.”

British trade experts slam UK government’s ‘unrealistic’ Brexit deal demands

Sam Lowe
20 May 2020
The New European
Sam Lowe from the think tank, the Centre for European Reform, said certain demands, such as automatic recognition of British qualifications, went “far beyond” what the EU offered other trading partners like Japan and Canada.

To burn or not to burn? Waste and bridges

20 May 2020
Interfax
But interestingly, a few days ago, an article was released in London about how Covid-19 is transforming how the European Union works, by Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform. Despite the fact that the UK has left the EU, Grant remains one of the most informed and acute experts and he highlights the following as what he sees as undesirable trends for Europe:

Let's not pretend the UK isn't after a special trade deal. In fact, it's good that it is

Sam Lowe
20 May 2020
The Telegraph
Given the EU's most significant economic relationship is with the UK, a trade deal should be ambitious - but compromise is still needed.

UK post-Brexit trade plan cuts tariffs but highlights EU risks

Sam Lowe
19 May 2020
Bloomberg
An advantage of the U.K.’s announcement is that it helps its ongoing trade negotiations with the EU, the U.S and Japan, because it makes clear what the default duties would be if no agreement is reached in these talks, according to Sam Lowe, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform.Britain’s plan also marks a walk-back from the temporary tariff schedule it proposed in the event of a no-deal Brexit last year, which would have seen 87% of U.K. imports made tariff-free. That proposal was criticized for giving away too much British leverage in future trade talks.

Britain’s vision for EU trade deal prompts claims of cherry picking

Sam Lowe
19 May 2020
Financial Times
“The British request to have British qualifications recognised by default, subject to terms and conditions, goes far beyond the EU-Japan deal, or the Ceta deal with Canada,” said Sam Lowe of the Centre for European Reform.“This is not necessarily impossible but it is not the kind of things the EU hands readily in its free trade agreements.”

UK plan to cut US farming tariffs sparks ministerial spat

Sam Lowe
14 May 2020
Financial Times
Sam Lowe, a trade expert at the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said a “big offer” on agriculture would be necessary to make any trade deal acceptable to the Trump administration and US Congress. “The US has long seen its beef, chicken and pork shut out of European markets because of high tariffs and restrictive regulations. If the UK is able to table an offer that deals with all of these concerns, then a trade deal can be done,” he said, adding that such concessions “might prove controversial with British farmers and consumers”.

The virus isn't the only problem for Germany's nose-diving economy

Christian Odendahl
14 May 2020
Bloomberg Quint
“The fiscal consolidation over the last 10 years has not increased our ability to weather this crisis,” said Christian Odendahl, the Berlin-based chief economist at the Centre for European Reform. “We refrained from going on a massive spending spree or lowering taxes massively. For the health of the European and world economy, we probably should have done both.”

Brexit civlil war: Boris faces unexpected crisis as top team SPLINTERS over US trade deal

Sam Lowe
14 May 2020
The Express
Sam Lowe, a trade expert at the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said a trade deal could be done with the Trump administration if there was a “big offer” on agriculture.

How coronavirus is reshaping Europe in dangerous ways

14 May 2020
The Guardian
From green backlash to reimposition of border controls, pandemic is accelerating tensions that could unravel the EU.

Die EZB sollte auf das Urteil nicht weiter reagieren

Christian Odendahl
14 May 2020
Capital.de
Das Urteil des Verfassungsgerichts über den Ankauf von Staatsanleihen durch die EZB wird hitzig diskutiert. Christian Odendahl meint: Die Karlsruher Richter sind zu weit gegangen und ihre ökonomischen Argumente sind dünn. Ein Selbstgespräch.

EU insists compromise on Brexit extension can be found

Sam Lowe
13 May 2020
The New European
Trade expert Sam Lowe from the pro-EU think tank, the Centre for European Reform, disagreed. He said No 10 was too focused on tackling the virus to properly focus on trade talks.“We’re not in a place where we’re even thinking about that [negotiations],” he told the Independent. “In order to get to a point where you can make those compromises you have to go through a lot of political theatre, I think, and at the moment everyone’s focused on Covid-19. Which is fine.”

European Union diplomats face the enemy within

13 May 2020
Politico
Ian Bond, a former British diplomat who is director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform, a think tank, said it would be hard for the EEAS to take a firmer line on China — given that foreign policy decisions need unanimous agreement at EU level."You're always going to be stuck with the lowest common denominator," said Bond.Individual member countries have also been reluctant to take a tough line with Beijing, on which they are increasingly economically dependent, he said.

Spending on Covid-19 crisis may blow apart EU defence ambitions

Sophia Besch
13 May 2020
Yahoo News
“The proposed cuts to the EU’s defence budget will not put an end to the EU’s ambitions,” says Sophia Besch, a research fellow focusing on defence and security policy at the Centre for European Reform.“But they show that, on defence, the union is only as effective as member-states allow it to be.”

Boris Johnson challenge: EU’s three conditions for post-Brexit trade deal revealed

12 May 2020
The Express
Charles Grant, from the Centre for European Reform, said: “I think the EU will set three conditions for this, which will be very very hard for Boris Johnson’s Government to comply with. “The first condition is a so-called level-playing field — the EU will insist that our rules on social and environmental standards, state aid, taxation are automatically updated to follow EU rules. “Because they’re very worried, genuinely worried, that we will turn into Singapore-on-Thames, kind of slash and burn, cut our regulations and steal lots of investment from them by being a deregulated economy.”

Why geography matters in Anglo-French trade amid row over 14-day quarantine

Sam Lowe
12 May 2020
The Telegraph
Sam Lowe, of the Centre for European Reform think tank, is likewise optimistic that the quarantine exemptions will help the tourism industry. “All these quarantines will lead to reduced tourism on aggregate but it could, if not boost tourism between France and the UK, see France become a relatively more popular destination,” he said.
“The option becomes, for everyone in the UK, that you either have to go to Cornwall or France, whereas before you had France, Greece and Spain.”